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	<title>the MixedInk blog &#187; punditry</title>
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		<title>Great video: yes, the crowd really is wicked smahht</title>
		<link>http://mixedink.com/blog/2008/07/great-video-yes-the-crowd-really-is-wicked-smahht/</link>
		<comments>http://mixedink.com/blog/2008/07/great-video-yes-the-crowd-really-is-wicked-smahht/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jul 2008 18:43:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vanessa</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[MixedInk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PredictionMarkets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[collaboration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[collaborative writing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[crowd sourcing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prediction markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[punditry]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mixedink.com/blog/?p=44</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Check out this video, singing praise for tools that tap people&#8217;s knowledge &#8211; whether using prediction markets to forecast everything from election results to American Idol winners to asking the audience tough questions answer on Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.  They point out that people &#8211; collectively &#8211; perform consistently better than the pundits [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Check out this video, singing praise for tools that tap people&#8217;s knowledge &#8211; whether using prediction markets to forecast everything from election results to American Idol winners to asking the audience tough questions answer on Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.  They point out that people &#8211; collectively &#8211; perform consistently better than the pundits and experts.  Our <a title="Prediction Markets" href="http://mixedink.com/blog/2007/10/betting-on-democracy/">post on prediction markets</a> makes many of the same arguments.</p>
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<p>Based on our <a href="http://mixedink.com/blog/2008/06/30-heads-are-better-than-one/">last test of MixedInk</a>, we&#8217;re convinced that our 30-headed pundit did better than any individual one of us could have alone!</p>
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		<title>30 heads are better than one!!!</title>
		<link>http://mixedink.com/blog/2008/06/30-heads-are-better-than-one/</link>
		<comments>http://mixedink.com/blog/2008/06/30-heads-are-better-than-one/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Jun 2008 20:17:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>david</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[MixedInk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[collaboration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[collaborative writing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[crowd sourcing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[punditry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[user-generated content]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[web 2.0]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mixedink.com/blog/?p=43</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We just tested out the latest version of our tool, and I wanted to share the results.  The short version: the test was a success!
Last week, 30 beta testers (read: friends) used MixedInk to help write a letter to the editor explaining why Barack Obama shouldn’t choose Hillary Clinton as his VP.   (We did not [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We just tested out the latest version of our tool, and I wanted to share the results.  The short version: the test was a success!</p>
<p>Last week, 30 beta testers (read: friends) used MixedInk to help write a letter to the editor explaining why Barack Obama shouldn’t choose Hillary Clinton as his VP.   (We did not select this subject on our own &#8211; we gave our participants a few topics to choose from, and this is the one where there seemed to be greatest consensus.)</p>
<p>Here’s what they created together:</p>
<p><!--           polls come after this --></p>
<div id="extended">
<blockquote><p>Many of us have long admired Hillary Clinton.  She has made public service and fighting for Democratic ideals her life&#8217;s work.  She is smart, competent, and hardworking.  Hillary Clinton is an American icon to some and a role-model to many, but she should not be Barack Obama&#8217;s vice presidential candidate.</p>
<p>While we certainly don&#8217;t expect many Republicans to vote for Obama, there is a palpable lack of enthusiasm among conservative members of the party about his nomination.  If there is one thing that would put an end to this ambivalence and inspire these conservatives to unite behind John McCain, it is Hillary Clinton.  Hillary has long been demonized by the conservative right, and her presence on the ballot would mobilize its foot soldiers.  With our country mired in two wars abroad, a failing economy, rising gas prices, diminishing civil liberties, and looming environmental disasters; too much is on the line to risk a vice-presidential candidate who will rally the Republican right-wing base.</p>
<p>Concerns about &#8220;Hillary Democrats&#8221; not voting for Obama are overstated.  The people who are seen as Hillary&#8217;s base &#8211; working class, white Americans among them &#8211; identify with the Democratic Party and have reason to be skeptical of a McCain presidency. As the Obama campaign and the media turn their focus to McCain in the coming months, these voters will learn the many ways a vote for McCain would be a vote against their personal and national interests.  Women who supported Hillary in the Democratic primaries will not migrate to McCain, whose slippery stance on Roe v. Wade would likely cost them their right to choose.  Nor will blue collar workers elect another Republican who embraces NAFTA and dismisses their unions&#8217; concerns.  Americans who want an end to the war in Iraq will not back McCain and his decision to stay the course indefinitely.  It&#8217;s true that Hillary supporters wanted this election to have a different outcome, but in the end they will not elect McCain simply to register their disappointment.</p>
<p>Barack Obama won the Democratic nomination because of his vision of a new America.  His call for change is one that resonates with voters.  It is not simply a call for much-needed policy change, but also for a change in the way government works, an end to old party politics, and a rethinking of the role of lobbyists and special interest groups. Hillary Clinton is part of the old guard.  With Barack Obama&#8217;s appeal grounded in a new vision for our country and government, he risks undermining his own message with Hillary as his running mate. Barack Obama has earned the opportunity to choose his running mate. Aside from selecting someone who will help him win, he should also pick someone who complements his message and style and who he wants at his side as he navigates the challenges that he will surely face during his presidency. For all her strengths, that someone is not Hillary Clinton.</p>
<p><em>Disclaimer: MixedInk is emphatically nonpartisan.  This letter to the editor may not represent the views of MixedInk, it&#8217;s founders, beta testers, employees, advisers, contractors, line cooks, chaufers, deep-sea welders, horseshoe fitters, and other associates.</em></p></blockquote>
<p>Not bad, huh?  We think it came our rather nicely, once again proving the age-old aphorism that 30 heads are better than one.  (What, you&#8217;ve never heard that one?)</p>
<p>Obviously the credibility of the output depends on the trustworthiness and democracy of the process, but we’re still in private beta so we&#8217;re not quite ready to spill the beans yet&#8230;  To gain access to the beans before or during spillage, <a title="MixedInk homepage" href="http://www.mixedink.com/">submit your email address</a> and we&#8217;ll invite you participate in future testing and you&#8217;ll receive an alert when MixedInk is publicly unveiled!</p>
<p>UPDATE: The letter to the editor was published in the <a href="http://www.madison.com/tct/archives/index.php?archAction=arch_read&amp;a_from=search&amp;a_file=%2Ftct%2F2008%2F06%2F21%2F0806210237.php&amp;var_search=Search&amp;keyword_field=&amp;pub_code_field=tct&amp;from_date_field=20080621&amp;to_date_field=20080621&amp;var_start_pos=0&amp;var_articles_per_page=10">Capitol Times in Madison, WI</a> (you&#8217;ll notice that only 18 of our 30 beta testers were comfortable signing their names to this publicly), and at <a href="http://www.oanow.com/oan/news/opinion/letters/article/clinton_has_many_merits_but_should_not_be_obamas_running_mate/21362/">OANow, a news site for Opelika/Auburn, AL</a> (but edited significantly to cut down the length &#8211; and they only let us attach one name to it!)</p>
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		<title>Off with their (talking) heads!</title>
		<link>http://mixedink.com/blog/2008/01/off-with-their-talking-heads/</link>
		<comments>http://mixedink.com/blog/2008/01/off-with-their-talking-heads/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Jan 2008 15:15:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>david</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[journalism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[punditry]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mixedink.com/blog/?p=38</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There’s always been a heavy anti-pundit streak in the online political realm.  But lately, the volume of criticism seems to be growing.  
The general consensus is that pundits are blowhards.  They make statements – often absurd, offensive or false statements – for which they’re rarely held accountable.  What is most frustrating [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There’s always been a heavy anti-pundit streak in the online political realm.<span>  </span>But lately, the volume of criticism seems to be growing.<span>  </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p>The general consensus is that pundits are blowhards. <span> </span>They make statements – often absurd, offensive or false statements – for which they’re rarely held accountable.<span>  </span>What is most frustrating is that they are granted unfettered access to millions of ears and eyes, regardless of the validity of their claims (or lack thereof).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>This is not a left-vs-right thing; it’s a populist attitude that can be found on both sides of the aisle.<span>  </span>Here’s Rightwing Nuthouse, from last August, <a href="http://rightwingnuthouse.com/archives/2007/08/14/a-straw-in-the-wind-2/">pointing out what it takes to succeed as a pundit</a>:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin-left: 0.5in">The trick in being a good political pundit is not in formulating wildly original analysis or penetrating insights into “what it all means.” Rather, it is much better to say exactly what everyone else is saying except be meaner, or funnier, or more serious, or more dismissive than the next fellow. A good turn of the phrase and an attitude will bring you stardom in punditland.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>While their backgrounds and expertise may seem to qualify them to opine on political issues, the talking heads’ obsessive focus on strategy and tactics crowds out all but the most simplistic analyses of the government policies which are at stake.<span>  </span></p>
<p>Even when it comes to the horse race, politics is such a stubbornly unpredictable arena that the pundits seem unable to read the political tea leaves any better than their audiences.<span>  </span>Or, at least, no better than those who follow politics closely (of whom there are <a href="http://www.pollster.com/blogs/pres08_is_anyone_paying_attent.php">a sizable number</a>).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>This rant from Colin Delaney at <a href="http://www.epolitics.com/2008/01/04/iowa-reckoning-a-years-worth-of-political-blather-told-us-precisely-nothing/">e.Politics</a> following the <st1:state w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Iowa</st1:place></st1:state> caucuses calls the pundits out on their mistakes:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin-left: 0.5in">Well, who was the big loser in the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">Iowa</st1:state></st1:place> caucuses? It wasn’t Mitt Romney or Hillary Clinton, and it certainly wasn’t Ron Paul. The big loser was political punditry. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin-left: 0.5in">…What was revealed to be vapid and empty last night was the endless, often cable TV-driven spouting of impression and prediction — when did political talking heads suddenly gain the ability to accurately foretell the future? Most of ‘em sure ain’t that good at it… even a cursory stroll down memory lane turns up plenty more. Remember when Fred Thompson was going to change the race irrevocably? Or when John McCain was doomed and should just pack up and go home? When Obama’s young-voter strategy was a waste of time, ’cause the damn kids never show up to vote anyway?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin-left: 0.5in">Political pundits: please stop telling us what you THINK is going to happen, because in the world of online communications, you don’t actually know more than we do. We have access to the same polls, we read the same on-the-ground reporting and scroll through the same blogs and we can see every significant piece of video the same day…<o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin-left: 0.5in">…Pundits, please just shut up and surrender some airtime to actual journalism.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Glenn Greenwald, a once-independent blogger who now writes for Salon, wrote about how wrong the pundits were on the Iowa Caucus results in a recent post, aptly titled &#8220;<a href="http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/01/04/huckabee/index.html">Worthless chatter</a>.&#8221;  <span></span>He lists a number of quite damning instances in which pundits not only inaccurately foretold Governor Huckabee’s collapse in the Iowa caucuses, but did so with a degree of certainty which now seems absurd, if not downright manipulative.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Underlying much of the criticism is a belief that pundits are an undemocratic influence on the country’s political narratives, and thus, its political outcomes.<span>  </span>Once a certain analysis or prediction becomes conventional wisdom among pundits, regardless of its initial veracity, it can serve as a self-fulfilling prophecy.<span>  </span>Aware of this phenomenon, pundits often go so far as to make statements <em>they know to be untrue</em> in order to increase the likelihood that their preferred reality will be come to be.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>So why is the pundit criticism getting louder <em>now</em>?<span>  </span></p>
<p>Pundits may be more extreme in their transgressions as they try to entertain for more airtime despite having no more material to work with.<span>  </span>It also could be that the critics have more visible platforms than ever before.<span>  </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p>But I would argue that<noscript>Reports that i free <a href="http://groups.google.com/group/carlyn8103/web/tracfone-ringtones">tracfone ringtones</a> to.</noscript> on top of this, there’s a growing, organic, anti-pundit sentiment out there in the general public that the critics are beginning to tap into. <span> </span>People now have access to almost all the same information the pundits do &#8211; we’re savvier media consumers.<span>  </span>We are seeing how frequently the pundits are incorrect, how their analyses are influenced by biases which may not be immediately apparent.<span>  </span>And we’re justifiably angry.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Politicians recognize this.<span>  </span>Both Republicans and Democrats talk about “the pundits” in voices dripping with disdain, instructing us to ignore their cynicism.<span>  </span>Candidates in both parties claim they’re going to prove the pundits wrong, and brag of having exceeded expectations.<span>  </span>Pursuing their own self interest, politicians are collectively stirring up a mini-rebellion, challenging the voters to show the supposedly omniscient pundits that this country is still a democracy (which, incidentally, means voting for them).<span>  </span>It’s almost as if they’re arguing that proving the pundits wrong is valid enough reason for voters to support their candidacies in and of itself!<span>  </span>This type of anti-elitist rhetoric used to be reserved for attacking corporate fat-cats, union leaders, and government officials and bureaucrats.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Bloggers definitely see it, too, and point out how wrong – and grating! – the pundits are.<span>  </span>Markos Moulitsas and Jerome Armstrong, two leading bloggers of the left, have long railed against the “DC cocktail party circuit.”<span>  </span>But even on DailyKos, a leading left-wing blogging community run by Mr. Moulitsas, there’s been an up-tick in the criticism lately, with <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/8/23613/35440/1009/433244">special</a> <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/8/225849/7164/6/433238">emphasis</a> <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/9/214311/0934/161/434092">on</a> <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/9/15149/90400/455/433806">Chris Matthews</a> (unaffectionately dubbed “tweety”).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Others in politics are also leveraging anti-pundit sentiment.<span>  </span>Credo <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Mobile</st1:place></st1:city>, the activist network connected to Working Assets, just circulated <a href="http://act.credomobile.com/campaign/hillary_media/">an online petition accusing the punditry of “biased and uninformed commentary</a>”:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in"><strong>&#8220;Can Hillary Cry Her Way Back to the White House?&#8221;<o:p></o:p></strong></p>
<p style="margin-left: 0.5in">That was the headline of a Maureen Dowd column in today&#8217;s New York Times. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin-left: 0.5in">Hillary Clinton&#8217;s win in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">New Hampshire</st1:state></st1:place> was shocking. The performance of the national press corps in the days preceding the vote, unfortunately, was not. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin-left: 0.5in">Journalists have been replaced by a punditocracy that makes its living (and gets its kicks) by perverting our democratic process. The misogyny that was unleashed by the media&#8217;s feeding frenzy on the video of an exhausted <st1:city w:st="on">Clinton</st1:city> tearing up at a small <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">New Hampshire</st1:state></st1:place> roundtable of voters was just the tip of the iceberg. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin-left: 0.5in">To be clear, we are not endorsing any candidate. This is not about who we choose for president, but rather how we choose our leader…<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Firedoglake <a href="http://firedoglake.com/2008/01/09/media-analysis-the-tweety-effect-runs-rampant/">summed it up</a>:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin-left: 0.5in"><st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">America</st1:place></st1:country-region> is sick of [expletive] this year. From politicians. And especially from pundits.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>So what’s the solution?<span>  </span>Though their offenses seem greater than ever before at the moment, this situation is not new. <span> </span>And yet the pundits’ stature within the media seems undiminished.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Marc Andreessen, blogger and entrepreneur of Netscape fame, <a href="http://blog.pmarca.com/2008/01/applied-lessons.html">has a proposal</a>:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin-left: 0.5in">If the world were a sane and just place, every pundit, commentator, expert, and reporter who predicted the things that didn&#8217;t happen and missed the things that did &#8212; which is to say, all of them &#8212; would resign their jobs tonight.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin-left: 0.5in">Since that won&#8217;t happen, the only logical response is to put one&#8217;s hands over one&#8217;s ears and say &#8220;Nanananananananananananana&#8221; every time one sees them on television from here on out.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>While that’s certainly <em>one</em> solution, there’s got to be a better one, a more systemic one.<span> </span></p>
<p><span></span>Wouldn’t it be nice if we could take the narratives that shape our politics out of the hands of a privileged few?<span>  </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Sure, the blogosphere is a big step in the right direction.<span>  </span>Because bloggers are more numerous than pundits, and because there’s room for more websites than there is room for major news outlets, people can choose the bloggers they agree with or like with greater precision than they can choose their pundits.<span>  </span>The blogosphere is thus more meritocratic. <span> </span>Also, bloggers tend to be more up-front about their beliefs – they do not disguise their points of view as fact – so any efforts to manipulate the debate are more transparent, by definition.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Yet bloggers are still lone individuals, people with agendas, interested in imposing their own lens on the political discourse.<span>  </span>No matter how much that lens align with yours, no single individual can always speak on behalf of an entire community. <span> </span>In stepping into the role of pundit, <em>any</em> single person would end up with too much control over the debate.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>If, within the media ecosystem, there were some way for groups to speak with a single voice, we could collectively shout down pundits’ efforts to manipulate the debate.<span>  </span>If only there were a way that people could create our narratives from scratch, thereby avoiding the undemocratic influences of those who would digest and interpret our news for us.<span>  </span><a href="http://www.mixedink.com/">Hmmmm…</a><o:p></o:p></p>
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